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27 May 2016
20160527
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  • 26 May 2016
    China's domestically-funded and state-backed financial system, combined with its wide range of policy tools, substantially mitigate the risk of a systemic financial crisis. However, financial liberalization, particularly of China's capital account, would weaken the authorities’ ability to manage systemic risks. Even in the absence of a systemic crisis, major imbalances created by rapid debt accumulation are likely to erode credit quality across sectors over time…
  • 20 May 2016
    At the end of 2015, US non-financial companies that we rate held $1.68 trillion of cash, a 1.8% rise from a year earlier. Technology companies led by industry for the first time since our annual study of cash holdings began, with $777 billion, nearly half of total US corporate cash holdings. Technology, healthcare/pharmaceuticals, consumer products, and energy are the most cash-flush industries, with $1.3 trillion, or 71%, of the corporate cash total. Apple accounted for $216 billion, or 12.8% of total corporate cash in 2015...
  • 19 May 2016
    Weak growth in emerging markets, driven by low commodity prices and weak export demand, will continue to act as a drag on the global economy this year. Moody’s has lowered its 2016 growth forecasts for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, as the effects of the weaker external demand and lower commodity prices have compounded domestic structural and political challenges. Moody’s currently forecasts G20 emerging markets growth at 4.2% for 2016 compared to 4.4% in 2015. For G20 advanced markets growth is predicted to slide to 1.7% for 2016 from 1.9% in 2015...
  • 18 May 2016
    Financial technology firms (fintechs) have had a head start in meeting demand for more personalized, easy-to-access digital financial services. However, we expect banks to retain a place at the center of the financial services industry, working both alongside and in competition with fintechs. The challenge will be one of leveraging new technologies and innovation to better meet customer needs, and banks retain several inherent competitive advantages as they respond...
  • 17 May 2016
    The reduced valuations of investments in energy-related companies have weakened the profitability of business development companies (BDCs). Additional write-downs would materially reduce BDCs’ capital buffers and increase their risk of breaching the regulatory asset coverage ratio (ACR). However, an ACR breach would only occur in the unlikely event of a full energy portfolio write-down in a highly adverse stress scenario...
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective



  • Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

    Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.