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27 Mar 2015
20150327

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  • 26 Mar 2015

    Latin American sovereign creditworthiness is stable but has limited upside potential

    Rating momentum is stabilizing for sovereigns in Latin America and the Caribbean after a decade of steady gains in creditworthiness. Over the next 12 to 18 months, upward rating movements will be limited because we expect growth to be lower as a result of a less favorable global economic environment and falling commodity prices. An economic deceleration will in turn push up fiscal deficits. However, debt levels among the region’s sovereigns pose only low to moderate credit risks. The low share of government debt that is denominated in foreign currencies limits potential risks posed by a strengthening dollar... Press Release l Full Report
  • 26 Mar 2015

    Life insurers face losses and capital declines if interest rates stay low

    The investment returns of life insurers worldwide will continue to fall owing to sustained low interest rates. Lower returns will hurt insurers’ profits and increase their risk of losses and capital declines. Not all insurers in each of the 21 markets we surveyed face the same level of risk. However, life insurers in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Taiwan are the most exposed to low interest rates, while companies in Australia, Brazil, Ireland, Mexico and the UK are the least exposed…Full Report
  • 26 Mar 2015

    Ukrainian Banks Show Sharp Drop in Capital Ratios

    The average regulatory capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for Ukrainian banks fell below the 10% minimum in February as the hryvnia depreciated more than 40% against the US dollar between 1 January and 1 March. According to the central bank, the banking system's average CAR was 7.4% at 1 March, down from 13.8% a month earlier and 15.6% at the end of 2014…Full Report
  • 24 Mar 2015

    Euro periphery hits $30 billion 2014 high yield issuance record, but repeat unlikely in 2015

    The record corporate high-yield issuance volumes of $30 billion in 2014 from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland are unlikely to repeat in 2015 as high-yield debt capital markets turn more cautious and concerns over some euro area countries’ sovereign creditworthiness re-emerge. Investors are likely to continue searching for yield and higher returns, but new issuer volumes will be lower in 2015, with market access still difficult for smaller and first time issuers... Full Report
  • 23 Mar 2015

    US Dollar Strength Hurts Countries with Large External Financing Needs

    The strengthening US dollar has prompted a sharp currency depreciation and/or a significant decline in the foreign exchange reserves of a number of countries. To the extent that these fluctuations reflect capital outflows or significantly lower external inflows, they are credit negative for countries with large external funding needs. Affected countries include those with sizable current account deficits, such as Turkey, South Africa, Colombia and Brazil and those with large pending external debt payments, such as Turkey, Malaysia and Chile…Press Release l Full Report
China
Reform and Rebalancing
 


  • China: Reform and Rebalancing

    The Chinese economy is embarking on a path of rebalancing, defined by a reorientation away from the export and investment-led development model towards a model where consumption gradually becomes a more important engine of growth. This process will be characterized by economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization, and credit deceleration, posing both opportunities and challenges for China's credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's rebalancing story unfolds.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    After several years of economic contraction, the euro area — still the second largest economic area after the US — returned to growth during the second half of 2013. This was the result of significant structural adjustment across the euro area periphery, institutional reform at the European Union and euro area levels and of a related reduction of market stress. However, growth is expected to be subdued for the foreseeable future, reflecting still large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (notably, poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area’s economic union, it is clear that the future growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, faces challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Emerging Markets – Prospects and Challenges

    After a decade of rapid growth, emerging market (EM) economies in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America and Africa are now facing a more uncertain economic outlook. For some EMs, subdued developed world demand, tighter liquidity conditions and rising political risk will undermine growth prospects and expose credit concerns. For others, structural fundamentals such as policy reform, favorable demographics, and nascent investment cycles will continue to drive macroeconomic outperformance and, by extension, improving creditworthiness. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to the key credit issues impacting major emerging markets.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.
  • Islamic Finance

    Islamic finance is one of the most dynamic sectors of global finance. For this reason, Moody's remains strongly committed to supporting its growing importance. We provide market participants with a complete range of credit expertise and experience to meet the emerging needs in this field including ratings, research and training services.

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