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21 Apr 2014
20140421

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  • 17 Apr 2014

    New EU framework for resolution of troubled banks confirms credit negative implications for senior unsecured creditors

    The new bank recovery and resolution framework passed by the European Parliament on April 15 details how private shareholders and creditors could be required to share in resolution costs via a bail-in, consistent with the stated objective of avoiding the use of public funds to support troubled banks. The potential to bail-in senior unsecured creditors marks an important development with negative implications for holders of senior unsecured bank debt in Europe... Full Report
  • 16 Apr 2014

    Australian and Canadian banks share many credit strengths, but differ on capital deployment

    Banks in Canada and Australia, two of the highest Moody's rated banking systems globally, benefit from favorable industry structures and strong domestic retail franchises that support solid earnings and internal capital generation. In both systems a relatively small number of large banks dominate, posting profitability metrics that compare very favorably with global peers. But capital allocation strategies in the two systems diverge: Canadian banks invest a greater proportion of their earnings in international operations, while Australian banks return more to shareholders... Press Release l Full Report
  • 15 Apr 2014

    US speculative-grade default rate remains low in first quarter

    Issuer-friendly credit markets, characterized by low interest rates and covenant-lite structures, contributed to the low default count for US non-financial corporates in the first quarter of 2014. The US speculative-grade default rate had declined to 1.7% by quarter-end, its lowest level since February 2008… Press Release | Full Report
  • 14 Apr 2014

    Johnson-Crapo bill would spur private-label RMBS issuance

    Several provisions in the housing finance reform bill proposed by US Senators Tim Johnson and Mike Crapo could spur issuance of private-label residential mortgage-backed securities. The bill would lower the number of residential mortgage loans eligible for inclusion in government-guaranteed securities, and would change the criteria for which securitizations would be eligible to receive government guarantees… Full Report
  • 11 Apr 2014

    Turkey's rating outlook changed to negative because of domestic political turbulence

    We changed the outlook on Turkey's Baa3 sovereign rating to negative from stable because the domestic political turbulence and lower global liquidity are weakening the country's external financing position. These factors are in turn adversely affecting foreign and domestic investor confidence. The more uncertain policy environment is also casting doubt over Turkey’s prospects for growth-enhancing structural reforms and thus its medium-term growth… Press Release l Credit Opinion
Pensions and Healthcare
Credit Challenges in an Aging World.
 


  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    After several years of economic contraction, the euro area — still the second largest economic area after the US — returned to growth during the second half of 2013. This was the result of significant structural adjustment across the euro area periphery, institutional reform at the European Union and euro area levels and of a related reduction of market stress. However, growth is expected to be subdued for the foreseeable future, reflecting still large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (notably, poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area’s economic union, it is clear that the future growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, faces challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • US Fiscal Outlook

    On July 18 Moody’s moved the outlook on the US government back to stable and affirmed the Aaa rating. The action reflects Moody’s assessment that the federal government’s debt trajectory is on track, at least through 2018, to meet the criteria laid out in August 2011 for a return to a stable outlook. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to credits with both direct and indirect linkages to the U.S. fiscal outlook.
  • China and Emerging Markets – Prospects and Challenges

    China is embarking on a structural shift in its economy away from investment and exports, and towards a consumption-driven growth model. Reform and rebalancing will present both opportunities and challenges for domestic credit, as well as the wider emerging markets universe. Meanwhile, China and emerging markets in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa are becoming increasingly influential forces in the global economy. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues in China and major emerging markets.
  • Pensions and Healthcare – Credit Challenges in an Aging World

    Pension and healthcare costs represent a growing, fundamental credit challenge for many governments and corporations as the world's population ages. These benefits were developed decades ago when demographics were tilted toward younger workers rather than retired beneficiaries. Driven by increases in longevity and lower birth rates in the intervening decades, the share of population aged 60 or older is growing rapidly across the OECD and many other nations, including China. Governments are increasingly struggling to afford their social security safety net promised to older citizens and retired employees. Many corporations see threats to their future credit strength unless they generate new revenues to pay for promised benefits or make hard decisions to cut worker benefits. The credit quality of large public and private sector organizations has already been stressed by pension and health care risks. These risks are likely to increase for many in coming years.
  • European Banking Union

    Progress toward a Banking Union for the euro area has multiple implications for bank credit, systemic risk and the health of the regional economy, to which banks are the primary providers of financing. In November 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) will become the Single Supervisor for the euro area, directly responsible for the day-to-day supervision of more than 120 banking institutions. Meanwhile, political and technical discussions continue regarding a centralized bank resolution process for the region, which will likely include the “bail-in” of creditors. Two topics of particular interest in early 2014 are the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and subsequent Stress Tests to be conducted by the ECB, in coordination with national supervisors and the European Banking Authority, as part of a Comprehensive Assessment to help improve banks’ financial footing and restore market confidence. This page highlights key Moody’s research on the credit implications for Euro Area banks and their creditors.
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