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06 May 2016
20160506
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  • 05 May 2016
    Uncertainty before the 23 June Brexit referendum has contributed to an increase in UK banks' wholesale funding costs, and is likely to squeeze margins and reduce business volumes. In the event of a Brexit, cross-jurisdictional banks will likely face more enduring challenges to their operating models, but these are unlikely to fundamentally weaken these banks’ credit quality...
  • 03 May 2016
    The delays in concluding the review of Greece’s current €86 billion bailout programme increase the risk of a new liquidity squeeze in the economy and undermine economic confidence. Between May and December, Greece will have to pay interest and amortisation costs totalling €7.5 billion, of which €5.0 billion (mostly to the IMF and European Central Bank) are due in June and July alone. Yet the next disbursement of €5.7 billion under the bailout programme can only take place after Greece and its official creditors, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, have concluded the negotiations they began in February...
  • 29 Apr 2016
    Having assessed the impact of the steep oil price decline on the four rated African oil exporters, we have downgraded the sovereign ratings of Nigeria (to B1 stable), Angola (to B1 negative), Gabon (to B1 negative) and the Republic of the Congo (to B2 negative). The negative outlooks reflect the substantial challenges facing the external position of Angola and uncertainty over government financing strategies for Gabon and the Republic of the Congo. By contrast, the stable outlook on Nigeria’s rating reflects our expectation that its external vulnerability indicator and debt metrics will remain materially above those rated below B1. These actions conclude the reviews for downgrade we had initiated for the four countries on 4 March... ​
  • 27 Apr 2016
    Despite decelerating economic growth and financial uncertainty, rating outlooks are mostly stable across Asia Pacific, although negative outlooks outnumber positive ones. Looking ahead, the key drivers of sovereign credit quality in the region will be economies' responses to challenges and opportunities offered by China's rebalancing, the risks posed by leverage and buffers against it, and the way in which government macroeconomic and structural reform policies evolve…
  • 25 Apr 2016
    On 2 May, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico will default on numerous securities, including Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico senior notes, regardless of whether the US Congress enacts pending fiscal oversight legislation for the US territory. In the absence of federal action, the defaults will encourage bondholder litigation, likely prolonging efforts to restructure Puerto Rico’s approximately $72 billion of debt...
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective



  • 2016 Outlooks

    The outlook for global credit conditions in 2016 remains stable overall as economic growth continues and defaults are unlikely to veer sharply upwards. However, credit risks are greater than a year ago, including persistent uncertainty about future US interest rates, even lower oil and commodity prices for a longer period, a sharper slowdown in China than we currently expect and lagging growth in Europe and parts of Latin America. Other risks are emerging or intensifying, notably those arising from geopolitical crises, regulatory developments, environmental issues and asset deterioration. This page provides the outlooks for 2016 by region, country and sector. Additional outlooks will publish over the coming weeks
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.